The quick read
- The Thunder went 64-18, best in the NBA, then lost to San Antonio in seven games in the West finals.
- Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins were traded, taking about a quarter of last season’s minutes with them.
- Our call: around 59 wins, the No. 2 seed in the West, and a loss in the conference finals.
The Oklahoma City Thunder start where they finished. They open on Oct. 20 in San Antonio, against the team that knocked them out in May. Two nights later, the home opener is against Denver, and there’s no new banner to raise. That’s the reality for a 64-win team that didn’t make the Finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his second straight MVP. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams start new max contracts. The core is set for years. What changed is the edges of the roster, where the front office cut salary and traded three players who helped win a title in 2025.
Last season: 64 wins and a Game 7 loss
Last season by the numbers
- 64-18 Record, 1st in the West
- +11.1 Net rating, 1st in the NBA
- 118.9 Offensive rating, 7th in the NBA
- 107.7 Defensive rating, 1st in the NBA
- 34-8 At home (30-10 on the road)
- 36.5% From three, on 37.9 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
The regular season was dominant. The Thunder won 64 games and had the best net rating in the league by a wide margin. Their scoring margin of 11.1 points a game was the eighth-best in NBA history. The defense was the engine: first in the league, and one of the best in 30 years of play-by-play data.
The playoffs started the same way. They swept Phoenix and swept the Lakers. Then San Antonio beat them in seven games and ended a nine-game playoff winning streak. In the four losses, the offense scored only 95.8 points per 100 possessions, which is terrible. Holmgren had a rough series, averaging 10.7 points and shooting 27% from three.
Here’s what a coach notices: the Thunder weren’t at full strength. Jalen Williams played only 33 regular-season games because of wrist surgery and hamstring trouble, and it followed him into the playoffs. Ajay Mitchell, who broke out with 13.6 points a game, missed the last four games of the West finals with a calf injury. OKC went 50-7 in the regular season when Mitchell played.
The awards piled up anyway. Gilgeous-Alexander won MVP again and Clutch Player of the Year, and averaged 31.1 points. Holmgren made All-NBA third team and finished second for Defensive Player of the Year.
Thunder preview: The roster
Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 68 | 33.2 | 31.1 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 55.3 | 38.6 |
| Chet Holmgren | 69 | 28.9 | 17.1 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 55.7 | 36.2 |
| Jalen Williams | 33 | 28.4 | 17.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 48.4 | 29.9 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 47 | 24.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 62.2 | – |
| Cason Wallace | 77 | 26.6 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 43.2 | 35.1 |
Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP and the player everything runs through. Holmgren is the weak-side shot blocker who can also shoot. Jalen Williams is the second creator, and his health is the biggest swing factor on the roster. Hartenstein is the screener, passer and rebounder who makes the big lineup work. Wallace is a pest on defense, and the shooting guard spot is the only real starting job up for grabs. Mitchell or Jared McCain could take it.
Bench: Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, Bennett Stirtz, Aday Mara.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajay Mitchell | 57 | 25.8 | 13.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 48.5 | 34.7 |
| Jared McCain | 30 | 18.0 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 46.2 | 39.1 |
| Jaylin Williams | 65 | 19.6 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 42.3 | 38.3 |
| Alex Caruso | 56 | 18.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 42.3 | 29.3 |
| Kenrich Williams | 56 | 15.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 47.3 | 38.8 |
Mitchell is a starter in everything but name and should play 25 to 30 minutes. The bench is short on size, which is why Mara, a 7-foot-3 center, matters even as a rookie. His old Spanish club, Zaragoza, says he’s still under contract there. The Thunder say the NBA cleared him. Topic has been slowed by health problems.
What changed: roster and coaching
About seven of every ten minutes are back. The players who left played 5,805 of last season’s minutes, about 29% of the total. Dort, Joe and Wiggins alone played 4,770 minutes, or 24%. The five starters played 42%, a low number because Jalen Williams and Hartenstein missed so much time.
Three rotation players were traded. Wiggins went to Atlanta for second-round picks. Joe, who shot 42.3% from three, went to Detroit for two second-rounders. Dort went to Atlanta in a three-team deal for three more second-rounders. The Wiggins deal alone cut the projected luxury-tax bill from about $213 million to about $152 million. Dort was the point-of-attack defender, the guy who picks up the ball handler. Wallace and Caruso inherit that job.
They paid their own. Hartenstein signed a three-year, $75 million deal. Kenrich Williams came back on one year. On Oct. 18, Wallace agreed to a five-year, $139 million rookie-scale extension. All five starters are now on multiyear deals.
The draft brought size and shooting. OKC took Mara at 12, traded with Memphis for Iowa guard Stirtz at 16, and added Otega Oweh in the second round. Oweh ruptured his Achilles in a preseason game on Oct. 13 and will miss the season.
On the bench: Mark Daigneault is back for his seventh season. He won Coach of the Year in 2024 and has finished in the top six of the voting every year since 2023.
Coach’s prediction
Same stars, same coach, thinner bench. In the regular season, that’s still a 59-win team.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line is 62.5 wins at DraftKings, the highest in the league. Sports Illustrated’s staff picked them 59-23 and second in the West, and NBA.com ranks them No. 2 behind San Antonio.
We land right with SI. The stars are as good as anyone’s, and the defense should still be elite. But losing Dort, Joe and Wiggins takes away defense, shooting and depth all at once, and a coach feels that in January when injuries hit. Jalen Williams staying healthy changes everything.
Our pick: 59-23, second in the West, and a loss in the conference finals. They’ll get another shot at the Spurs, but the Spurs have more depth right now.
Watch for: Jalen Williams’s games played, who wins the shooting guard job, and whether Mara can give real minutes as a backup big.
