The quick read
- The Nuggets went 54-28 with the No. 1 offense in the league, then lost to Minnesota 4-2 in the first round.
- Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown are gone, and DeMar DeRozan arrives on a minimum deal.
- Our call: around 50 wins, the No. 3 seed in the West, and a second-round exit.
Denver opens on Oct. 22 in Oklahoma City, on the night the Thunder play their home opener. It’s a tough first test, and an honest one.
They haven’t reached the conference finals since winning the 2023 title. Nikola Jokic is still one of the best players in the world, and Jamal Murray averaged 25.4 points last season. But the team around them got thinner this summer, and the defense was the problem last year. That’s the story of this season.
Last season: 54 wins and an early exit
Last season by the numbers
- 54-28 Record, 3rd in the West
- +5.2 Net rating, 7th in the NBA
- 122.6 Offensive rating, 1st in the NBA
- 117.4 Defensive rating, 21st in the NBA
- 28-13 At home (26-15 on the road)
- 39.6% From three, on 35.8 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
The offense was the best in the league. Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists. Murray averaged 25.4 points and shot 43.5% from three. As a team, Denver made 39.6% of its threes.
The defense was another story. It ranked 21st, which means winning a lot of shootouts.
Injuries made it worse. Jokic hyperextended his left knee in Miami in late December and missed weeks. Aaron Gordon played only 36 games because of hamstring problems. Christian Braun missed time with an ankle sprain and played 44 games. Peyton Watson was having a career year when a hamstring injury ended his season.
In the playoffs, the Denver Nuggets won Game 1 against Minnesota, then lost three straight. The Nuggets won Game 5 at home and lost Game 6 by 12. Gordon hurt his calf in that series. Here’s what a coach notices: in the four losses, Denver scored 114, 96, 96 and 98. The best offense in the league couldn’t find its rhythm against a defense with size, and that’s what decided the series.
Nuggets preview: The roster
Starters: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 65 | 34.8 | 27.7 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 56.9 | 38.0 |
| Jamal Murray | 75 | 35.4 | 25.4 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 48.3 | 43.5 |
| Aaron Gordon | 36 | 27.9 | 16.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 49.7 | 38.9 |
| Cameron Johnson | 54 | 30.5 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.0 | 43.0 |
| Christian Braun | 44 | 31.8 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 51.9 | 30.1 |
When all five played together, they were outstanding: +12.9 per 100 possessions in 342 minutes. The problem is that 342 minutes is not much. Jokic runs the offense from the post and the elbow. Murray is the scorer who gets hot late. Johnson spaces the floor, at 43% from three. Gordon is the finisher and the best frontcourt defender. Braun does the running and cutting, though his three-point shot slipped to 30.1%.
Bench: DeMar DeRozan, Tyus Jones, Marvin Bagley III, Spencer Jones, Alpha Diallo, Julian Strawther, Zeke Nnaji, DaRon Holmes II, Trevon Brazile.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan | 77 | 31.2 | 18.4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 49.7 | 32.0 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 60 | 20.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 61.8 | 46.2 |
| Julian Strawther | 57 | 15.1 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 46.7 | 38.7 |
| Spencer Jones | 64 | 22.1 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 50.4 | 39.6 |
| Zeke Nnaji | 52 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 47.0 | 25.9 |
| Tyus Jones | 67 | 14.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 34.9 | 29.2 |
DeRozan is the new sixth man and the top scorer off the bench. David Adelman called his role a work in progress. Bagley is the backup center. Diallo, the EuroLeague Defender of the Year with Monaco, should get more minutes than expected. The last roster spot and the backup guard job were still open in the final week of camp.
On health: Strawther hurt his knee in a preseason game against the Clippers around Oct. 14, and no timeline has been announced. Gordon played limited minutes in preseason and is expected to be ready for the opener.
What changed: roster and coaching
About six of every ten minutes are back. The players who left played 7,758 of last season’s minutes, about 39% of the total. Watson, Hardaway and Brown alone played 5,723, or 29%. The five starters played 45%, low because Gordon and Braun missed so much time.
Watson is the biggest loss. He left in a sign-and-trade to Cleveland for four years and $88 million. Denver got Cleveland’s 2031 first-round pick and a second-rounder. Watson averaged 14.6 points and was one of the team’s best young defenders. Hardaway signed with Miami. Jonas Valanciunas went to Europe. Brown and Jalen Pickett were not brought back.
The replacements are cheap. DeRozan signed for one year at the minimum after Sacramento waived him. Bagley and Diallo got one-year deals, and Tyus Jones and Spencer Jones re-signed. Last season, Denver even traded Hunter Tyson at the deadline to get under the tax.
No first-round pick. Denver traded No. 26 to San Antonio for No. 35, where it took Arkansas forward Trevon Brazile, and two future seconds. Bryce Hopkins, the No. 49 pick, is on a two-way deal.
Jokic is waiting on his extension. He could have signed for four years and $278 million this summer. By waiting until next summer he can sign for five years and about $359.5 million. His contract runs through 2027-28, with a player option on the final year. He has said he’s committed to Denver.
On the bench: Adelman, who replaced Michael Malone, is back. The new lead assistant is Dave Joerger, the former Memphis and Sacramento head coach.
Coach’s prediction
Best offense in the league, a thinner bench, and a defense that has to get better. That’s a 50-win team if the starters stay healthy.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line is 48.5 wins at bet365. Sports Illustrated’s three writers all picked Denver fifth in the West, at 48-34.
We’re a little higher. The starting five was dominant when it played together, and Jokic gives Denver a high floor every night. The concern is depth: the bench lost its two best wings, and DeRozan isn’t known for his defense. If Gordon or Braun misses big chunks again, this becomes a 46-win team fast.
Our pick: 50-32, third in the West, and a second-round exit against one of the two teams at the top.
Watch for: Gordon’s games played, how many minutes DeRozan gets with the starters, and whether Diallo can give Denver the perimeter defense it lost with Watson.
