The quick read
- The Spurs went 62-20, knocked out the champion Thunder in seven games, and lost the Finals to the Knicks 4-1.
- About 94% of last season’s minutes are back, the most continuity in the league, and Tobias Harris is the one real addition.
- Our call: around 61 wins, the No. 1 seed in the West, and a second straight trip to the Finals.
The rematch comes first. The San Antonio Spurs open on Oct. 20 at home against Oklahoma City, the team they beat in Game 7 of the West finals in May. It’s the best opening-night game on the schedule, and it’s a fair preview of how the West will be decided again.
San Antonio is no longer the young team that might be a year away. It’s the team the rest of the West is chasing. The core is together, and the big question is whether a three-guard starting lineup can hold up for 82 games.
Last season: 62 wins and a Finals trip
Last season by the numbers
- 62-20 Record, 2nd in the West
- +8.3 Net rating, 2nd in the NBA
- 119.6 Offensive rating, 4th in the NBA
- 111.3 Defensive rating, 3rd in the NBA
- 32-8 At home (30-12 on the road)
- 35.9% From three, on 37.9 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
This was a breakout year. The Spurs won 62 games and the Southwest Division. Only Oklahoma City finished ahead of them, by two games. They had a top-five offense and a top-three defense.
The playoffs showed it. They beat Portland 4-1 and Minnesota 4-2. Then they beat the Thunder in seven games, ending OKC’s nine-game playoff winning streak. Counting the regular season and the playoffs, San Antonio went 8-4 against the champs.
The Finals were a different story. The Knicks won in five. In Game 5 at home on June 13, the Spurs led 72-65 going into the fourth quarter, then scored only five points over the last 3:17 and lost 94-90. Wembanyama had 28 points and 13 rebounds that night. Here’s what a coach takes from that: late in a close game, their offense still gets stuck. That’s the next step.
Wembanyama’s season was historic. He was the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year since the award began, and the youngest ever to win it. He made All-NBA first team, finished third in MVP voting and led the league in blocks for the third straight season. Keldon Johnson won Sixth Man of the Year.
Spurs preview: The roster
Starters: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 64 | 29.2 | 25.0 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 51.2 | 34.9 |
| De’Aaron Fox | 72 | 31.0 | 18.6 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 48.6 | 33.2 |
| Stephon Castle | 68 | 30.0 | 16.7 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 47.1 | 33.2 |
| Devin Vassell | 67 | 30.5 | 13.9 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 43.7 | 38.4 |
| Dylan Harper | 69 | 22.6 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 50.5 | 34.3 |
Mitch Johnson has confirmed the three-guard group of Fox, Castle and Harper for opening night. Vassell started with them and Wembanyama in the Oct. 14 preseason game, and he’s the most likely fifth starter. Wembanyama is the whole system on both ends. Castle is the real point guard of the group, at 7.4 assists a game. Fox is the closer who gets downhill. Harper, last year’s rookie, was efficient off the bench and earned a promotion. Vassell is the shooter who keeps the floor spaced, at 38.4% from three.
Bench: Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Tobias Harris, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant, Jordan McLaughlin, Tarris Reed Jr., Jayden Quaintance.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keldon Johnson | 82 | 23.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 51.9 | 36.3 |
| Tobias Harris | 63 | 27.7 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 46.9 | 36.8 |
| Julian Champagnie | 82 | 27.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 43.7 | 38.1 |
| Harrison Barnes | 77 | 25.8 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 45.6 | 38.8 |
| Luke Kornet | 68 | 21.0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 64.3 | – |
| Carter Bryant | 71 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 40.8 | 33.5 |
That’s a deep bench. Champagnie started last season and played every game, and he lost his spot only because the guards were too good to keep out. The 15th roster spot is still open, and Kelly Olynyk is the favorite to fill it, possibly after the season starts.
One note on health: Fox missed time in preseason with a hip problem and came back for the Oct. 14 game. How serious it was hasn’t been reported. Quaintance, the No. 20 pick, is coming back from ACL and meniscus surgery and will be limited early.
What changed: roster and coaching
Almost everything is back. The players who left played 1,232 of last season’s minutes, about 6% of the total. That means roughly 94% are back, the highest share in the league. The five projected starters alone played 49% of last season’s minutes.
The departures were deep bench. Olynyk, Lindy Waters III, Bismack Biyombo and Mason Plumlee were not re-signed.
Tobias Harris is the addition. He signed for two years and $31 million from Detroit, using the mid-level exception (the main tool teams over the cap have to sign free agents). He’s a veteran forward who can score inside and out. He gives Mitch Johnson a bigger lineup option when the three guards get pushed around.
They kept their own. Champagnie re-signed for three years and $45 million. Barnes came back on a one-year, $8 million deal, well below what he made last season. Jordan McLaughlin also returned.
Wembanyama is locked in. He signed a five-year rookie-scale max extension worth about $252 million, starting in 2027-28. He took the standard max instead of waiting for a bigger supermax.
The draft added size. San Antonio took Quaintance at 20, then traded up with Denver to get UConn center Tarris Reed Jr. at 26. Second-rounders Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Maliq Brown are on two-way deals.
On the bench: Mitch Johnson is back for his second full season. The big hire was Billy Donovan as lead assistant. Donovan coached the Thunder and the Bulls, and he gives a young head coach an experienced voice next to him.
Coach’s prediction
The unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, the most continuity in the league, and a deep bench. That’s a 61-win team that expects to be playing in June.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line sits at 60.5 wins at DraftKings, one of only two teams projected for 60. Sports Illustrated’s staff picked the Spurs to finish 63-19 and first in the West, and NBA.com has them No. 1 in its West rankings.
We like them a little more than the Thunder this year. The rotation is set, the stars are young and getting better, and they already beat OKC when it counted. The worry is the three-guard lineup on defense against big wings, and Fox’s hip.
Our pick: 61-21, first in the West, and Western Conference champions for the second year in a row. The Finals are the hard part, and we have them coming up one step short again.
Watch for: Whether the three-guard lineup lasts past Thanksgiving, how Harris fits in the frontcourt, and Wembanyama’s minutes, which were under 30 a game last season.
