The quick read
- The Heat went 43-39 and lost a play-in game in overtime, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
- They traded Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakučionis and picks to Milwaukee for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis.
- Our call: around 46 wins, the No. 6 seed in the East, and a first-round exit.
Miami Heat doesn’t do quiet offseasons, and this one was loud. Two months after a one-point play-in loss in Charlotte ended their season, the Heat landed Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP, and gave up a big part of their young core to do it.
Erik Spoelstra is back, and so is Bam Adebayo, who scored 83 points in a game last season. The Heat open on Oct. 21 against Minnesota. The question this season is simple. Can a team built around two big men who don’t shoot many threes still play the fast, spread-out style Miami played last year?
Last season: 43 wins and an overtime heartbreak
Last season by the numbers
- 43-39 Record, 10th in the East
- +2.2 Net rating, 13th in the NBA
- 116.7 Offensive rating, 13th in the NBA
- 114.5 Defensive rating, 13th in the NBA
- 26-15 At home (17-24 on the road)
- 36.1% From three, on 37.9 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
The Heat were the most average team in basketball last season. They ranked 13th in offense, 13th in defense and 13th in net rating. The one place they stood out was pace. They played faster than anyone in the league, first in possessions per game.
The night everyone remembers is March 10. Adebayo scored 83 points in a 150-129 win over Washington. That’s the second-most points in NBA history, behind only Wilt Chamberlain’s 100. Norman Powell made the All-Star team and led the team at 21.7 points a game, but a groin strain slowed him after the break. Herro played only 33 games because of foot, toe and rib injuries.
It ended in Charlotte on April 14. LaMelo Ball hit a go-ahead layup with 4.7 seconds left in overtime, and Miles Bridges blocked Davion Mitchell’s last shot at the buzzer. Hornets 127, Heat 126. Adebayo hurt his lower back in the second quarter. It was Miami’s fourth straight trip to the play-in, and this time they didn’t get out of it.
heat preview: The roster
Starters: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 36 | 28.9 | 27.6 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 62.4 | 33.3 |
| Bam Adebayo | 73 | 32.4 | 20.1 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 44.2 | 31.8 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 68 | 30.3 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 47.5 | 41.4 |
| Klay Thompson | 69 | 21.7 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 39.3 | 38.3 |
| Davion Mitchell | 70 | 28.6 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 49.0 | 39.5 |
This is the lineup Heat on SI projected in September. The team hasn’t confirmed it, and Tim Hardaway Jr. could start with Thompson closing games. Giannis is the whole show when he’s healthy. He shot 62.4% from the field because he lives at the rim. Adebayo is the defensive anchor and can guard all five spots. Wiggins shot 41.4% from three, the best mark among Miami’s regular starters. Thompson is here to space the floor for the two big men. Mitchell is the point guard and the pest on defense, with 6.5 assists a game.
Bench: Bobby Portis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jović, Simone Fontecchio, Nick Richards, Dru Smith, Ryan Conwell.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Portis | 67 | 24.2 | 13.7 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 48.8 | 45.6 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 80 | 26.6 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 44.7 | 40.7 |
| Pelle Larsson | 70 | 26.4 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 49.6 | 32.3 |
| Nick Richards | 20 | 22.4 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 52.3 | 27.8 |
| Simone Fontecchio | 70 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 41.2 | 37.5 |
| Nikola Jović | 47 | 17.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 36.6 | 26.9 |
| Dru Smith | 70 | 16.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 41.5 | 29.5 |
Portis is the backup big, and he shot 45.6% from three last season, which gives the second unit spacing. Hardaway is a shooter, too. Larsson started for much of last season and just signed a four-year, $60 million extension, so he’ll play a real role even off the bench. Conwell, a guard from Louisville, was the No. 37 pick.
Health heading into the opener: Adebayo has right groin tightness and sat out the preseason finale. He’s listed as day-to-day, and Spoelstra said he’s “not overly concerned.” Dru Smith (calf) and Larsson (illness) were inactive for that game. Keshad Johnson is back from a hamstring injury. Training-camp cuts weren’t final as of this week.
What changed: roster and coaching
About six of every ten minutes are back. The players who left played about 7,500 of last season’s roughly 19,700 minutes, around 38%. The four players sent to Milwaukee played about 5,800 of those minutes. Powell, who signed with Chicago for two years and about $45 million, played another 1,700.
The big trade: Giannis. Miami Heat sent Herro, Jaquez, Ware, Jakučionis, the No. 13 pick in the 2026 draft, unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2030 pick swap and a 2033 second-round pick to Milwaukee. A pick swap means Milwaukee can trade its pick for Miami’s that year if Miami’s is better. ESPN reported that the Bucks took Miami’s offer over Boston’s. Giannis played only 36 games last season. He can sign a four-year, roughly $275 million extension on Jan. 6, or he can turn down his $62.8 million player option and become a free agent next summer. That’s the subplot all season.
They added shooters. Thompson signed for two years and $13 million after Dallas bought him out. Hardaway signed for one year and $6.5 million. Richards signed for one year to add size, and Fontecchio re-signed at the minimum.
They kept their own. Wiggins picked up his $30.2 million player option and added a two-year, $34 million extension. Larsson got his extension in September.
On the bench: Spoelstra is back, along with associate head coach Chris Quinn, whom the Heat allowed to interview for Chicago’s head-coaching job. We found no other staff changes.
Coach’s prediction
Two bigs who can guard anyone, and shooters around them. The fit is the question. If Giannis plays 65 games, call it 46 wins.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line is 46.5 wins at BetMGM, and ESPN’s projection system, BPI, has them at about 46. Their title odds sit around 30-to-1.
We’re right at the line. Giannis and Adebayo make Miami a much tougher out, and the defense should jump from average to good. But they gave away a lot of depth to get him, and Giannis has missed real time. The shooting around the two bigs will decide whether the offense works.
Our pick: 46-36, sixth in the East, and out in the first round against Boston.
Watch for: how Spoelstra spaces the floor with Giannis and Adebayo together, whether Miami keeps playing fast, and any news on Giannis’ extension around Jan. 6.
