The quick read
- The Lakers won 53 games and a playoff series last season, then lost LeBron James to Philadelphia and turned over more than half of their minutes.
- Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton and Sandro Mamukelashvili are the big additions around Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves.
- Our call: around 47 wins, the No. 5 seed in the West, and a first-round exit.
A new era starts on Oct. 21. The Lakers open at Crypto.com Arena against Golden State, and for the first time since 2017-18, LeBron James isn’t on the roster. He signed with Philadelphia in July. He’ll be back in L.A. on Christmas Day, in the other team’s jersey.
This is Luka Dončić‘s team now, with Austin Reaves as his partner. JJ Redick is back for his third season. The front office spent the summer adding size, defense and depth. The problem is that almost everybody around the two stars is new, and new teams take time.
Last season: 53 wins and a division title
Last season by the numbers
- 53-29 Record, 4th in the West
- +1.8 Net rating, 14th in the NBA
- 118.2 Offensive rating, 9th in the NBA
- 116.4 Defensive rating, 19th in the NBA
- 28-13 At home (25-16 on the road)
- 35.9% From three, on 32.9 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
The record was better than the team. The Los Angeles Lakers won 53 games and the Pacific Division, but their net rating ranked just 14th. That usually means a team won more close games than it should have. They had a top-ten offense and a defense in the bottom half of the league, and they played slow, 22nd in pace.
The offense was two guys. Dončić averaged 33.5 points and won his second scoring title. Reaves had a career year at 23.3 points. Together they were the highest-scoring duo in the league, and the Lakers went 30-11 when both played.
Then both got hurt on the same night. On April 2 at Oklahoma City, Dončić strained his left hamstring and Reaves hurt his left oblique, the muscle along the side of the stomach. Neither played again in the regular season. The Lakers still beat Houston 4-2 in the first round with Dončić sidelined. Then the defending champion Thunder swept them in the second round.
Lakers preview: The roster
Starters: Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Walker Kessler, plus one open spot.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić | 64 | 35.8 | 33.5 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 47.6 | 36.6 |
| Austin Reaves | 51 | 34.5 | 23.3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 49.0 | 36.0 |
| Quentin Grimes | 75 | 29.4 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 45.0 | 33.4 |
| Walker Kessler | 5 | 30.8 | 14.4 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 70.3 | 75.0 |
Dončić runs everything, and every play bends toward him. Reaves is the second creator, the guy who attacks when the defense leans toward Luka. Grimes earned his spot in camp. He’s a wing who can guard the other team’s best guard, and the Lakers badly need that. Kessler is the big change. He’s a true rim protector, a center who blocks and changes shots near the basket.
As of Oct. 12, Redick said nothing was final. The fifth spot was between Ziaire Williams and Adou Thiero, with Jake LaRavia also in the mix.
Bench: Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jake LaRavia, Ziaire Williams, Jaden Hardy, Matisse Thybulle, Jarred Vanderbilt, Kevon Looney, Adou Thiero, Cameron Carr.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Sexton | 26 | 26.0 | 17.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 48.2 | 41.0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 80 | 21.9 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 52.3 | 38.9 |
| Jake LaRavia | 82 | 25.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 45.9 | 32.1 |
| Ziaire Williams | 56 | 22.9 | 10.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 42.5 | 34.3 |
| Jaden Hardy | 23 | 20.4 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 44.3 | 42.0 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 30 | 16.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 43.3 | 39.8 |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 65 | 17.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 47.1 | 29.3 |
| Kevon Looney | 21 | 14.7 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 41.7 | 15.4 |
Sexton is the projected sixth man, a scorer who can run the second unit. Mamukelashvili is a big who can shoot, which lets Redick space the floor around Dončić. Thybulle is a defensive specialist. Looney backs up Kessler.
Health is the story of camp. Dončić left both preseason games against Sacramento early with a sore right leg, and his status for the opener wasn’t clear at our deadline. Kessler jammed his left pinkie in camp and hadn’t played a preseason game as of Oct. 12, though he was back at full practice. Williams missed time with a bruised left foot.
What changed: roster and coaching
Less than half of last season’s minutes are back. The returning players logged about 8,700 of last season’s 19,705 minutes, roughly 44%. Players who left took about 11,000 minutes with them. NBA.com says no team brought back a smaller share. Dončić and Reaves alone account for nearly half of what returns.
The big loss is LeBron James. He averaged 20.9 points and 7.2 assists, and played almost 2,000 minutes. He signed with Philadelphia. Also gone: Deandre Ayton (traded to Washington for Hardy and two second-round picks), Marcus Smart (Houston), Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard (Phoenix) and Jaxson Hayes (Utah). That’s most of last season’s rotation.
They paid for a center. Kessler came from Utah in a sign-and-trade for four years and $130 million. The price was steep: Utah gets two unprotected first-round picks (2031 and 2033) and two pick swaps. That’s a bet that he stays healthy after the shoulder surgery.
They kept Reaves and added depth. Reaves re-signed for four years and $184.7 million. Grimes got four years and $60 million, Mamukelashvili four years and $52 million, and Sexton two years and $19 million. In the draft, the Lakers moved up one spot to take Cameron Carr, a guard from Baylor, at No. 24.
On the bench: Redick is back for year three, and Rob Pelinka still runs the front office. The one staff change: Zach Guthrie moved up from coaching the G League team to an assistant job running player development.
Coach’s prediction
Two stars, a real center and a lot of new faces. That’s a 47-win team that gets better as the year goes on.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line is 46.5 wins. Charles Barkley is higher on them. On the Bill Simmons Podcast, he said this group is “probably just as good” as the Dallas team Dončić took to the 2024 Finals. The Lead’s preview sees a best case of a top-three seed and a worst case of about 34 wins if Kessler or the backcourt gets hurt.
We land in the middle. The defense should be better with Kessler, Grimes and Thybulle. But the 53 wins last season came with a net rating that looked more like a 45-win team, and the offense loses a third creator in LeBron. The West is also deep, with San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Denver and Minnesota all ahead of them on paper.
Our pick: 47-35, fifth in the West, and a first-round loss in a tight series with Minnesota.
Watch for: Dončić’s leg, Kessler’s first month back, and who wins the fifth starting spot.
