The quick read
- The Warriors went 37-45 and lost in the play-in after Jimmy Butler tore his ACL in January.
- They made no trades, re-signed their veterans and drafted Yaxel Lendeborg, who’s in line to start as a rookie.
- Our call: around 40 wins, ninth in the West, and another trip to the play-in.
The Warriors open on Oct. 21 at the Lakers, a 7 p.m. Pacific start on ESPN. Stephen Curry will be there. Three other players who were supposed to matter a lot won’t be. Butler and Moses Moody are still rehabbing, and Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely with a health issue the team hasn’t described.
Steve Kerr is back on a new two-year deal. He hasn’t oversold this group. He said publicly that the Warriors are not in the championship conversation. The goal is to stay afloat until the injured players return, and then see what this team looks like whole.
Last season: a slide after Butler went down
Last season by the numbers
- 37-45 Record, 10th in the West
- -0.6 Net rating, 20th in the NBA
- 115.0 Offensive rating, 18th in the NBA
- 115.6 Defensive rating, 17th in the NBA
- 22-19 At home (15-26 on the road)
- 35.6% From three, on 44.1 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
The season split in two. The Golden State Warriors were 25-19 when Butler tore the ACL in his right knee around Jan. 20. They went 12-26 the rest of the way. Curry played only 43 games because of runner’s knee, pain around the kneecap. Moody tore the patellar tendon in his left knee.
The numbers were average across the board: 18th on offense, 17th on defense. The Warriors still shot a lot of threes, 44.1 a game, but they made just 35.6%. At the deadline they traded Jonathan Kuminga, who had asked to be moved, and Buddy Hield to Atlanta for Porzingis. He played only 15 games for Golden State.
As the 10th seed, they won their first play-in game 126-121 at the Clippers. Two days later they lost 111-96 at Phoenix, and the season was over.
Warriors preview: The roster
Starters: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 43 | 30.9 | 26.6 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 46.8 | 39.3 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 82 | 28.5 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 45.5 | 37.1 |
| Draymond Green | 68 | 27.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 41.8 | 32.6 |
| Gui Santos | 68 | 20.5 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 50.0 | 35.1 |
This is the small lineup Kerr leaned toward in mid-October with Porzingis out. Curry is still the whole offense when he’s on the floor. He averaged 26.6 points and shot 39.3% from three. Podziemski played all 82 games and had his best scoring year, and he just signed a five-year extension worth about $110 million. Santos is a do-everything forward who shot 50% from the field. Green is the defensive brain and a second playmaker. Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick out of Michigan, was MVP of the Las Vegas Summer League as the Warriors won the title. He tweaked his left ankle in a preseason game on Oct. 13 but practiced fully two days later.
Bench: Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II, Will Richard, Brandon Williams, Georges Niang, Charles Bassey.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Anthony Melton | 49 | 23.0 | 12.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 40.7 | 29.4 |
| Brandon Williams | 66 | 22.2 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 47.2 | 23.2 |
| Al Horford | 45 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 42.6 | 36.1 |
| Will Richard | 69 | 20.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 46.8 | 33.5 |
| Gary Payton II | 73 | 15.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 58.3 | 29.1 |
Horford is the backup big, and Kerr wants him around 20 minutes a night. Kerr also wants Green or Horford on the floor as much as possible to run the defense. Melton and Payton are the defensive guards. Williams is the backup point guard, a scorer who struggled from three. Kerr said Niang and Bassey will be in the rotation for the opener.
Health is the whole story. Butler is out to start the season and could return around January or February. Moody could be back around December or January. Porzingis didn’t report to camp and is out indefinitely with what the team calls a private health issue. He isn’t cleared to practice. As for Curry, Kerr plans to manage his minutes and may sit him on some back-to-backs.
What changed: roster and coaching
Most of last season’s minutes are back, but not on the floor. Returning players logged about 15,300 of last season’s 19,804 minutes, roughly 77%. But Butler, Moody and Porzingis, all out to start, account for about 3,100 of those. Take them out and about 62% of last season’s minutes are available on opening night.
The losses were role players. Pat Spencer (two-way deal with Phoenix) and Quinten Post (offer sheet with Memphis that the Warriors didn’t match) were the biggest, at about 1,200 minutes each. Kuminga, Hield and Trayce Jackson-Davis were traded during the season.
No trades, lots of re-signings. Green turned down his player option so the Warriors could chase LeBron James, who picked Philadelphia instead. Green came back on a one-year, $27.68 million deal. Horford (two years), Melton (two years), Payton and Bassey re-signed too. Porzingis signed a two-year, $40 million extension, but only $3 million of next season’s money is guaranteed. Niang and Williams joined on minimum deals.
The money is tight. The Warriors are hard-capped at the second apron, the league’s top spending limit, and are about $20.4 million over the luxury tax. Butler is on an expiring $56.8 million deal. Curry has one year left and hasn’t extended.
On the bench: Kerr signed for two more years, and he’s still the league’s highest-paid coach. His staff changed a lot. Associate head coach Terry Stotts and assistant Jerry Stackhouse left to chase head jobs. Frank Vogel joined from Dallas as associate head coach.
Coach’s prediction
An all-time great shooter, a smart defense and three key players in street clothes. That’s a 40-win play-in team.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line is 39.5 wins. Yahoo Sports ranked them 22nd in its preseason power rankings and called a play-in spot the best case, pointing to the ages of Curry (38), Green (36) and Horford (40). Fadeaway World projects 39-43 and 11th, just out of the play-in. BetFanatics leans over, betting on better health.
We think they sneak in. If Butler and Moody come back healthy around midseason, the second half should look better than the first. But the top of the West is loaded, and asking Curry to carry a thin roster for 82 games at 38 is a lot.
Our pick: 40-42, ninth in the West, and a loss in the play-in.
Watch for: Lendeborg’s minutes as a rookie starter, any news on Porzingis, and how many games Curry plays.
