The quick read
- The Celtics won 56 games and earned the No. 2 seed, then blew a 3-1 lead to Philadelphia in the first round.
- Jaylen Brown went to the 76ers for Paul George, and Mitchell Robinson came over from the Knicks.
- Our call: around 49 wins, the No. 3 seed in the East, and a second-round exit.
For the first time in ten years, the Boston Celtics start a season without Jaylen Brown. They open on Oct. 20 with an afternoon game in Detroit, and the man they got for him, Paul George, is the new starter on the wing.
The bigger news is the guy who barely played last season. Jayson Tatum missed the first 62 games while coming back from a torn Achilles. He says he’s “back healthy” and expects to play back-to-backs. If that’s true, Boston has its best player for a full season again. Joe Mazzulla is back as coach.
Last season: 56 wins and a painful exit
Last season by the numbers
- 56-26 Record, 2nd in the East
- +8.1 Net rating, 4th in the NBA
- 120.8 Offensive rating, 2nd in the NBA
- 112.7 Defensive rating, 4th in the NBA
- 30-11 At home (26-15 on the road)
- 36.7% From three, on 42.1 tries a game
Ratings are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Net rating is the difference. Source: Basketball-Reference.
The regular season was a big success. Boston won the Atlantic Division and finished second in the East, mostly without Tatum. They had the second-best offense in the league and the fourth-best defense. They also played the slowest pace in the NBA, 30th of 30. Pace is how many possessions a team uses per game, and Mazzulla’s teams like to walk it up and hunt for a good shot.
Brown carried them. He averaged 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists, all career highs, and scored 50 at the Clippers on Jan. 3. Payton Pritchard (17.0 a game) and Derrick White (16.5) gave him help. Tatum returned on March 6 against Dallas and played 16 games.
Then came the playoffs. Boston led Philadelphia 3-1 in the first round and lost the next three. In Game 6, Tatum left with left knee stiffness, and he was ruled out of Game 7 about two hours before tip-off. The Celtics lost Game 7 at home, 109-100, on May 2. Mazzulla started a lineup in that game that hadn’t played a minute together all season. He used 23 different starting lineups in the regular season.
celtics preview: The roster
Starters: Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Neemias Queta.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 16 | 32.6 | 21.8 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 41.1 | 32.9 |
| Paul George | 37 | 30.7 | 17.3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 43.9 | 39.2 |
| Payton Pritchard | 79 | 32.4 | 17.0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 46.4 | 37.7 |
| Derrick White | 77 | 34.1 | 16.5 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 39.4 | 32.7 |
| Neemias Queta | 76 | 25.3 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 1.7 | 65.3 | 12.5 |
This is the starting five NBC Boston’s panel agreed on in September, though two panelists had Baylor Scheierman starting instead of Pritchard. Tatum is the focal point again, and in his short return he grabbed 10 rebounds a game. George is a smart, long wing who can shoot (39.2% from three last season). White is the defensive glue, and he can run the offense too, with 5.4 assists a game. Pritchard is a scorer who can play either guard spot. Queta, who just signed a four-year, $56 million extension, is the starting center. He shot 65.3% because almost every shot he takes is at the rim.
Bench: Mitchell Robinson, Sam Hauser, Baylor Scheierman, Mike Conley, Jordan Walsh, Hugo González, Luka Garza, Ron Harper Jr., Chris Cenac Jr.
| Player | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Hauser | 78 | 24.8 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 41.9 | 39.3 |
| Luka Garza | 69 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 57.7 | 43.3 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 60 | 19.6 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 72.3 | – |
| Baylor Scheierman | 77 | 18.6 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 45.3 | 39.9 |
| Jordan Walsh | 68 | 17.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 50.9 | 38.4 |
| Mike Conley | 54 | 18.4 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 33.5 | 33.7 |
| Hugo González | 74 | 14.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 47.6 | 36.2 |
If Pritchard ends up as the sixth man, he’s proven he can do it. In 29 games off the bench last season, he averaged 17.2 points and shot 42.9% from three. Robinson is the backup center, and offensive rebounding is his specialty. Hauser and Scheierman are the first wings up if George misses time. Cenac, the No. 27 pick from Houston, will likely spend time with Maine in the G League.
The last roster spots were still open late in camp, with Devin Carter, a former lottery pick, in the mix on a non-guaranteed deal.
One note on health: George has a long injury history, which is why SI’s Chris Mannix called Boston’s health “a big if.” We couldn’t find an update on Tatum’s left knee, so watch the opening-night injury report.
What changed: roster and coaching
About three of every four minutes are back. The players who left played about 4,900 of last season’s roughly 19,700 minutes, around 25%. Brown alone played about 2,400 of them, half of what walked out the door.
The big trade: Brown for George. Boston sent Brown to Philadelphia for George, two Philadelphia first-round picks (2028 and 2031), two second-round picks and a trade exception. A trade exception is a credit that lets a team take on salary in a later trade without sending salary back. George is 36, played 37 games last season because of a 25-game suspension, and averaged 16.7 points across his two years in Philadelphia.
They added size up front. Robinson signed for three years and $47.4 million after leaving the Knicks. He played 19.6 minutes a game last season and grabbed 8.8 rebounds. Conley, a 19-year veteran, signed for one year at the minimum to back up the guards.
Who left besides Brown. Nikola Vucevic, acquired at the deadline for Anfernee Simons, signed with Orlando. Max Shulga and John Tonje had their team options declined, and Dalano Banton was waived. Ron Harper Jr. re-signed for three years, and Jordan Walsh got an extension.
On the bench: Mazzulla is back, and we found no reports of staff changes. Expect plenty of lineup tinkering with this many new pieces.
Coach’s prediction
A healthy Tatum covers a lot of the Brown hole. A healthy George covers the rest. That’s two big ifs, so call it 49 wins.
Coach’s whiteboard
The betting line at bet365 is 51.5 wins. SI’s panel picked Boston third in the East at 50-32, and Mannix had them first.
We’re a little under the line. The defense should still be very good with White, George and two real centers. The offense lost its leading scorer, and George is 36. Tatum played only 16 regular-season games last season, so expect his minutes to be managed early.
Our pick: 49-33, third in the East. They beat Miami in the first round, then lose a rematch with Philadelphia in the second round.
Watch for: Tatum’s minutes in November, how often Mazzulla changes the starting five, and whether Robinson’s offensive rebounding gives Boston easy points it didn’t get last season.
